Probes

Summary
Probes defense is minimum 6 defense per land, maximum 16 defense per land, and if probe count is in between those values, then probe defense is the exact number of probes the defender has.

Intro
The probe formula is comprised of many parts.

The two main parts to consider are probes offense and probes defense.

You then have to consider shields, and when doing non aggressive probings you can use the one probe trick for a small chance of success.

Probes Offense
Probes offense is very simple. It is the amount of probes that you send. Just like with attacking, you will always succeed if you send more probes than the probe defense of your enemy. If you send less probes than the defense of your enemy then you will have a chance to succeed that is the relative strength of your probe offense compared to the relative strength of your enemy's probe defense.

So for example:

Probes sent = 10 000

Probe defense = 15 000

Likelihood to succeed: 10 000 / 15 000 = 2 / 3 ~ 66%

Probes Defense
Calculating probe defense is more complex than probe offense.

Probe defense has a land based minimum, a land based maximum, and is based on your number of probes.

The land based minimum is 6 defense per land. This means that a kingdom with 1000 land will have minimum 6000 probe defense.

The land based maximum is 16 defense per land. This means that a kingdoms with 1000 land will have a maximum of 16000 probe defense.

If a 1000 land kingdom has more probes than 6000 (minimum defense) and less probes than 16000 (maximum defense) then their probe defense will be their exact number of probes.

Probe Shields
Probe shields grant you up to 20% defense from probes, according to how far you power them up.

This 20% is guaranteed, however it is randomized, meaning that you will not know when the shields activate.

Due to it being a top heavy formula, in the short run, you maybe defend 30%, but it evens out very quickly.

Due to the way the probe shields work, you are unlikely to fail on shields twice in a row (but it is still possible).

If you fail two probe attempts in a row, it is more likely that you are not sending enough probes, than it is for you to just be unlucky with the shields.

However, as the shields are on the defender's side, if someone else is probing them too, you might indeed be getting unlucky.

The best way to reduce this "unlucky" factor is by not spending your probe attempts (PAs) one by one. If you save up a few PAs and use them in small stacks rather than individually, you will be able to capitalize on the fact that you failed on shields.

On the other hand if you don't stack your PAs, it is possible that you are getting unlucky with the shields all the time, while someone else is getting all the robs.

One Probe Trick
The one probe trick only works for intel gathering probings, such as Spy on Kingdom or Spy on Military.

The one probe trick is exactly what you would think it is. If you only send 1 probe, you still have a possibility of getting a successful spy on X.

The is a 20% chance that the one probe trick will activate.

I am getting Rob Raped, what should I do ?
There are several things you can do against being rob raped.

The first thing is to get more probes yourself, so that you build up a probe defense.

The second thing is activating your shields before you go to bed, to decrease the amount of robs you will get.

Third thing is to make sure you build training camps. This might seem like a small hint, but that's 10% of land that is saving you money that can not get robbed.

Finally, you should respond.

Threaten them, rob them back, arson / sabo, hit them.

But be conscious of how hard you respond. A few arsons might be enough to stop the robbing, but do too many of them and you are opening yourself up to a harsh response in return.

While robs are considered aggressive probings, arsons and sabos are considered far more aggressive.

Finding Banks
An advanced technique to finding banks is through spread-sheeting.